Archive for October, 2008
The Post Wherein I Explain Myself
Wednesday, October 29th, 2008More than one friend, both blogger and non-political observers, have warned me that my credibility will be dirt should I hold to the delusion that McCain can pull this election out. My response has been to say, “Shut up and vote. It’s over when it’s over.”
In 2006, I’ll admit it: I didn’t want to see the writing on the wall. The Congressional races were going to be bloodbaths. Republicans were going to lose big. It was obvious and I didn’t want to see it.
John Hawkins, who has been scary-good at predicting these things tells me I’m smoking the hopeful, delusional dope once again. But I’m not. Not this time. This time, I see this and I know the election outcome does not look good for McCain. I read this and I know the Obama strategy is working. I watch the Republican elites bail and I know that they believe it’s over. I note that press is actively working (with a few fair exceptions) to get Obama elected with even the LA Times withholding reporting that might make Obama look bad.
So I see all this and I see that McCain is still within reach and I refuse to be part of the chorus of malcontents adding a nail to the coffin–when there’s no one filling it. As I said earlier today, I believe that there are good reasons people might lie to pollsters about who they are voting for in this election. And then there is the whole lying with statistics thing.
Most of all though, I refuse, REFUSE, to give momentum to a candidate who will promote failed ideologies. In this charged, biased environment, I am not sure what and who to believe and I read this stuff all the time. I’m not sure how much the hype has created this outcome or if the outcome is even created. How do polls swing 8 points in a day when the external environment has barely changed? How do polls that were so extreme a week ago, tighten so dramatically? Why should I believe a word from the media driven polls when they have such a vested interest in the outcome? And I remember it being “over” in 2000 and 2004, too. Hawkins says the internals of the polls and the states swinging were much different. Maybe. Like I said: I’ll admit it. It looks really bad.
It is not, however, impossible. And it is not over.
So this time, I’m not ignoring reality, I’m hoping that reality will change. I’m hoping that volunteers in swing states can change hearts and minds. I’m hoping the McCain campaign will work hard and get a message out that I hope will inspire voters to change their apathetic ways and get out and vote.
Barack Obama, his supporters and the media have given his ascendancy an air of inevitability. You know, everyone wants to be on the side of a winner–especially those not ideologically driven. So, when America was losing the war, it was unpopular. When the war looks won, suddenly everyone supports it. Well, the same thing happens in elections and Obama and the press knows it. There will be grandiose journalistic self-examination after Obama wins. Before then, there’s a job to do and that’s to promote a winner and be on the side of the trendy and new.
I won’t participate in a self-fulfilling prophecy. I just won’t. Those like Peggy Noonan who have aired their concerns could wait ten days to give their constructive criticism, but one suspects their are personal considerations to attend to. Goodness knows that no matter the outcome of this election, the Republicans need to take a long, hard look at their tent. It’s a big tent, but it needs some cleaning up.
That can wait. For the next seven days, I write like we’re winning. I see reality clearly. It’s a long shot. Very long. And still, a McCain win is possible. As long as a win is possible, there will be no hedging or quibbling or criticizing or throwing in the towel. Well, not from me, anyway.
Cross-posted at RightWingNews.com
Why Voters Aren’t 100% Sold On Obama
Tuesday, October 28th, 2008Most polls report that 11% or so of the populace remains undecided a week outside the election. I don’t believe it. People have decided alright–they’re just afraid to say it. Have you ever seen so much peer pressure to vote a certain way?
Smart, nuanced, enlightened, informed, hopeful, and “with it” people vote for Barack Obama. He is the change everybody who’s anybody believes in.
There is much momentum for Barack Obama. He is the physical, visual representation of change: he’s young, multi-racial and an able communicator. He is the literal ideal that the Civil Right’s era Baby Boomers fought for. And all Americans (well, nearly all) are thrilled that Barack Obama has done well. He symbolizes the idea that the American Dream is possible for ANY ONE. That’s a lot of peer pressure to vote for him.
Still, the polls are close. So close, in fact, that Barack Obama wants to seal the deal by persuading the electorate via a 30 minute boring video that emphasizes how boring and dull and reliable and dependable and intelligent and middle class and just-like-you Barack Obama is. And Barack Obama’s form is just like me. I don’t doubt it. He has a wife and kids and went to (a black supremest) church and lives in a middle class (million dollar) home and has a (Harvard) college education and believes in economic “fairness” (redistribution) and had his political career launched by a (former terrorist) college professor. He looks like you and me, he just has some rather intense personal views. His form is just like me. His substance….
Let’s face it. It’s a relief listening to Barack Obama. He doesn’t have the verbal ticks of George W. Bush. He looks good coming off a plane. He has that je ne sais quoi Kennedy cool thing going. And frankly, it’s tiresome defending a president when it’s painful to watch a press conference or see a big government policy pour forth from a supposed-conservative. Why not vote Obama?
That’s just it. Even in HD, substance matters. Barack Obama looks and sounds good but his substance counts. These are troubled times.
The economic problems of the world will come back around. Or, stupid policies will continue the implosion. But the problems are too big for any one person to handle. Heck, they’re too big for Congress to handle. The world economy has a life of its own. If the President had such control, he could have lowered oil prices six months ago to head off the economic tightening, but he couldn’t. Just as he couldn’t control the sell-off of oil today. It’s beyond the President to manipulate such things as much as we’d like to imbue our leaders with that power.
The president does, however, control our response to military attacks. He will decide how and when to bring troops home. He will see the movements of our enemies and ostensible friends and make decisions based on what he sees. He will have to cut through the cacophony of voices and make a decision. In fact, in this fraught world, he’ll make many of them. And the decisions will come from a storage of life experience. And in this world, it comes down to trust.
While the press and pundits kvetch about economic turmoil, the reality of geo-politics looms as a backdrop. I remember the economic damage 9/11 did all the way here in Texas. There were empty parking lots as people sat home, afraid. It is absolutely ridiculous to be so near-sighted as to ignore this fact.
I don’t think Americans ignore this fact. This concern bubbles underneath all the “it’s the economy stupid” talk. And it’s why the race isn’t over yet. Americans want a president who has an instinct to self-sacrifice for the country. For McCain, that instinct isn’t theoretical, it’s real. And, it matters.
Here is something that I have not doubted about Reagan, Bush I, Clinton and GW Bush: they adore their country. Jimmy Carter? Well, I’m not so sure he likes America so much. That love covers a multitude of sins. Disagree with policies or appointments or other executive decisions, but if Americans believe that the president loves America, much can be forgiven.
Does Barack Obama love America? It seems like he feels that America has potential but is a fixer-upper. A little tweak here, a big tweak there and America can be a great country…one the world will finally love and one he can finally delight in. Here’s what leads me to this conclusion:
The change rhetoric reveals much. America is wrong and must be changed to be correct.
The fairness rhetoric reveals much. America is unfair and must be forced to be fair.
The neighborliness rhetoric reveals much. America is un-neighborly and greedy and needs to be more sharing.
The hope rhetoric reveals much. America, the way it is, is hopeless.
The legislative justice rhetoric reveals much. America is unjust and must be coerced to be just.
The words come from a heart of beliefs and none of them extol American virtue. Rather, the words belie an unease with America.
These turns of phrases flit in the back of voters’ minds. The idea seems to be foment discontent and focus on the worst in order to create an environment ripe for a savior. It tastes good to blame rich people, Wall Street, and those people, whomever they are, making a person’s life difficult. It tastes good going down, but there is an aftertaste. A person has to accept that America is bad and needs to be fixed rather than America is great and can always get better.
These subtleties are difficult to articulate, but they’re there. And that’s why voters aren’t sold on Obama. At least, it’s part of the reason.
McCain Will Win
Tuesday, October 28th, 2008When John McCain wins, won’t the world, Democrats and even establishment Republicans be shocked? I still say that McCain will win. Vote people. The last election came down to just over 500 votes.
I’m not the only one who believes McCain will triumph.
The Tax Code Explained…
Tuesday, October 28th, 2008I got this in an email today and because I’m too lazy to reformat it, I’m printing it as is. But it nicely explains the system of progressive taxation.
TAX System Explained In Simple Terms
Sometimes politicians, journalists and others exclaim; ‘It’s just a tax cut for the rich!’ and it is just accepted to be fact. But what does that really mean? Just in case you are not completely clear on this issue, I hope the following will help. Please read it carefully.
Let’s put tax cuts in terms everyone can understand.
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for dinner and the bill for all ten comes to $100.
If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
a.. The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
b.. The fifth would pay $1.
c.. The sixth would pay $3.
d.. The seventh would pay $7.
e.. The eighth would pay $12.
f.. The ninth would pay $18.
g.. The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.
So, that’s what they decided to do. The ten men ate dinner in the restaurant every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve.
‘Since you are all such good customers,’ he said,’I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily meal by $20.’ Dinner for the ten now cost just $80. The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still eat for free, but what about the other six men, the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his ‘fair
share?’ They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to eat their meal. So, the restaurant owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so:
a.. The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
b.. The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% savings).
c.. The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28% savings).
d.. The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings)
e.. The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
f.. The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to eat for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
‘I only got a dollar out of the $20,’ declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, ‘but he got $10!’
‘Yeah, that’s right,’ exclaimed the fifth man. ‘I only saved a dollar, too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more than me!’
‘That’s true!!’ shouted the seventh man. ‘Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!’
‘Wait a minute,’ yelled the first four men in unison. ‘We didn’t get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!’
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up. The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for dinner, so the nine sat down and ate without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start eating overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.
Attention David Frum: Wait Until The Patient Is Dead To Do The Postmortem
Tuesday, October 28th, 2008Here’s the thing about so-called “Moderates”: they have no loyalty to any ideal but pragmatism. And pragmatism is defined as “what’s good for me.”
The latest ostensible voice of reason is moderate pragmatist David Frum. He is full of artful, empty prose. In a nutshell, McCain will lose. It is Palin’s fault. Stop spending money on McCain. Spend more on the Senate races.
Today, more wisdom poured forth if only the ignant masses would listen.
David Frum misses something simple:
The time to do postmortems is after the patient dies. The patient is not dead yet. It does not help a moderate Republican get elected when moderate Republicans cut the legs out from under the campaign on the home stretch.
Fiscal conservatives and libertarian Republicans have shown immense restraint this election season. John McCain was not their first, second or third choice. And yet, many soldier on because John McCain is a good man. He has served his country with honor. He will care for the soldiers and finish the battles in Iraq and Afghanistan with foresight. He actually tried to address the Fanny-Freddie mess and saw the problem ahead of time. John McCain is a far better choice than the liberal Barack Obama. That is an understatement.
And yet, guys like Mr. Frum seem to see no ethical problem with opining about building “from the ashes” the new Republican party. Well, newsflash Washington insiders, there aren’t ashes yet. Rather than addressing ideas for rebuilding the party, wait until the patient is dead.
Far from being consumed by an out-pouring of adoring love for the Republican party, the critics seem to be craven opportunists carving out safe real estate because things don’t look great for the home team. Not one of the moderates have articulated a case for Barack Obama. Rather, they’ve all parroted the trendy anti-Palin response: Quelle horreur! Palin est trés gauche!
The people paying the bills–rank and file Republicans–see these actions as more of the same problems that have plagued Congress and Washington DC in general. It is insulting enough to take cheap shots from the media and the left, but to take them from one’s own team on the eve of such a pivotal and important election, is, well, outrageous.
The election is by no means over. It isn’t helpful to have Moderates throw in the towel reminiscent of Congressional Democrats on the Iraq War. The Moderate Republicans seem a little too eager to have the Republican Party lose.
Restraint, Mr. Frum, show some. There will be plenty of time to figure out how to fix the party after this election is finished. And who knows? If McCain wins, he just may be inviting some of those loyal beer guzzlin’, gun-totin’, Bible-clingin’ Palin-lovers, to the White House. You might even have to sit next to one some time. Quel dommage!
Can We Call Barack Obama A Socialist Now?
Monday, October 27th, 2008Please note that it’s not whether redistribution of wealth is even the right thing to do, but how best to redistribute wealth.
Investor’s Business Daily calls Obama’s beliefs “stealth socialism“. It’s not so stealthy if you have eyes to see. And here, you’ll find that Obama’s ideology mirrors what his father hoped to achieve in Kenya.
Glenn Reynolds says that ” this is pretty standard stuff in large parts of legal academia.” Well, if that’s the case, I have an idea. Since the Dems are so desirous of putting in a draft or mandatory military service, I suggest that all Academics prove their worth in private industry for, say five years, before they wax theoretical in institutions of higher learning. The lack of real-life experience absolutely warps the mind. (And no, “community organizing” is not real life experience. It is still working on someone else’s dime.)
Cross-posted at RightWingNews
Fake Voter Votes From Rome….In Iowa
Sunday, October 26th, 2008Soren Dayton reports voter fraud in Iowa.
Hi all, I’m trying to gather instances like this. If you find or read of any voter fraud in your state, please let me know. I’m going to start a running post linking to all instances of VOTER fraud. There is plenty of registration fraud. The real problem is when it translates into fraudulent voting.
A U.S. Military Operation Inside Syria?
Sunday, October 26th, 2008HotAir has all the information.
Bill Roggio says:
If the raid occurred, the US military must have detected a senior member of al Qaeda in Iraq in the region. Abu Ayyub al Masri, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, is reported to have left the country earlier this year after the terror group lost its sanctuaries in Diyala province.
The US military may be closing in on al Qaeda’s senior leadership. US forces killed Abu Qaswarah, al Qaeda in Iraq’s second in command, during a raid in Mosul in northern Iraq on Oct. 15. The military has also killed and captured numerous al Qaeda leader and couriers over the past several weeks. The information obtained during these raids help to paint a picture of al Qaeda’s command structure inside of of Iraq as well as in neighboring countries.
It occurs to me that life doesn’t stop just because there’s an American election. I wonder how much foreign fighters have thought they can get away with because the election is distracting or they don’t believe the President would risk being aggressive. This supposition is assuming the reports are true.
Do All Politicians Lie To Get Elected?
Saturday, October 25th, 2008Watch the last five minutes, the last segment of this video. Do you agree with the suppositions? I’m just wondering a bit, here. Because I actually believe John McCain when he says that he will be working on passing comprehensive immigration reform first thing out of the gate (something I disagree with, by the way). I actually believe that Barack Obama wants to implement some version of Medicare/Medicaid for all.
I remember some people complaining about what George W. Bush put forth when he first got elected and Bill Clinton said something to the effect that Bush was doing exactly what he’d said he do. Actually, nothing, save the lack of the veto pen around spending, surprised me about President Bush’s administration.
And for that matter, I think the current candidates have stated, clearly, what they intend to do, if you have ears to hear. Maybe I’m naive, but I believe them.
