Comments on: American Issues Project Column: The Complicated Economy http://melissablogs.com/2009/06/02/american-issues-project-column-the-complicated-economy/ Information Pollination Sat, 11 Feb 2012 21:50:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: david foster http://melissablogs.com/2009/06/02/american-issues-project-column-the-complicated-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-15019 david foster Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:51:28 +0000 http://www.melissaclouthier.com/?p=13802#comment-15019 An economy contains many time lags and both negative and positive feedback loops...people aren't very good at comprehending and controlling such systems, even ones much less complicated than the human body. In his book <a href="http://photoncourier.blogspot.com/2003_12_01_photoncourier_archive.html#107279548054897011" rel="nofollow">The Logic of Failure</a>, Dietrich Doerner describes a simple experiment in which subject were asked to control the temperature of a supermarket freezer case. The thermostat had broken, and they had to directly control the cooling mechanism by observing the actual temperature and adjusting the cooling rate as required. Most couldn't do it, and some of the strategies employed were truly bizarre. This for a very simple system, with one time lag and one operator-controlled feedback loop. An economy contains many time lags and both negative and positive feedback loops…people aren’t very good at comprehending and controlling such systems, even ones much less complicated than the human body.

In his book The Logic of Failure, Dietrich Doerner describes a simple experiment in which subject were asked to control the temperature of a supermarket freezer case. The thermostat had broken, and they had to directly control the cooling mechanism by observing the actual temperature and adjusting the cooling rate as required. Most couldn’t do it, and some of the strategies employed were truly bizarre.

This for a very simple system, with one time lag and one operator-controlled feedback loop.

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