If Dems did not want Hillary in 2008, what will have changed by 2012? Nothing. Her prospects will have only dimmed after we’ve grown another four years’ distant from the successful two terms of Bill’s presidency. Moreover, if Obama does not run again, that means his administration will have been a failure and Dems will be on the run — not a situation that favors a Hillary bid. Besides, Hillary hasn’t done anything to raise her profile in Obama’s Administration; she’s been invisible.

In any event, I think Obama WILL run again — he’ll let the American people decide whether they want him for two terms. I don’t think he would ever simply not run. So, that means the Republicans will have to find someone even more youthful, charismatic, and “hope-y change-y” than Obama. Despite peoples’ present dissatisfaction with how things are going, I don’t think anyone’s prepared to swap horses at this point. If they kept Bush for two terms despite his horrible record, they’ll give Obama another four years too.

Statistics favor Obama too: Since the beginning of the last century, there have been 20 presidents. About half (11) of them did not get reelected. But, of that half, three died in their first term (McKinley, Harding, Kennedy), and two did not run for a second term (Teddy R. and LBJ). Of the remaining 6 presidents who failed to get reelected, only 1 was a Democrat (Carter).