How likely do you think a sweep will happen? That is, how likely will the GOP win in VA, NJ and NY 23?
This Pew research passed along by Mary Katherine Hamm seems to indicate that might be the case:
Under a section called “Partisan Knowledge Gap,” we find Republicans were more knowledgeable by a double-digit factor on four issues. Although the Glenn Beck question is naturally easier for Republicans, the other three issues are basic political knowledge— what “cap-and-trade” means, who’s in control of the House, and who the new Supreme Court Justice is (a question that should perhaps be easier for Democrats). Republicans also led Democrats on identifying the unemployment rate, Fed chairman, Dow level, Max Baucus’ position. Republicans correctly answered an Iran/Israel question and an Afghanistan question more often than Dems. Republicans and Democrats were even on identifying the “public option” as a health-care plan.
If the Democrat voters were informed, they’d be Republicans.
Fifty-two percent say the country is on the wrong track compared to 36 percent who say it is headed in the right direction with 9 percent saying conditions are mixed and 3 percent undecided. While there have been pluralities saying the U.S. is on the wrong track in four of the previous five WSJ/NBC polls during Obama’s presidency, this is the first time the number broke 50 percent. The one month where that was not true was April when 43 percent said things were on the right track and an equal number said they were going in the opposite direction.
And now for Congress and the GOP:
Sixty-five percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing compared to 24 percent who approve with 11 percent undecided. Fifty-six percent have a very or somewhat positive view of Obama (this is a different metric than job approval) while 33 percent are in the negative camp. Americans see the Democratic Party positively by a 42 percent to 36 percent margin with 20 percent declaring themselves neutral, while the Republican Party is regarded negatively by 46 percent to 25 percent with 27 percent being neutral. Fourteen percent see the Democrats “very positively” while only 6 say the same about the GOP.
What I see in all this is a country absolutely exasperated at the political class. They had hope and hope is currently failing them. The economy stinks. The Republicans are not acting very Republican. Where does a voter turn to get satisfaction?
This poll also shows me that the country likes Barack Obama personally–they just don’t like the policies all that much.
And reports like this from USA Today about job creation just seem like fanciful thinking. It’s all funny-money. Basically, it looks like stimulus funds spared state governments from having to make cuts. That means there will still be hell to pay–someone has to generate revenue to pay for government employees. Private sector job creation is nil. So, a year from now, state budgets will, once again have to beg the federal government for money and the fed won’t have it because the federal tax revenue continues to decline.
Nancy Pelosi speaks of another stimulus. This will again delay the inevitable and provoke inflation. The 70s were ugly. It looks like 2010 will be ugly, too.
The troops aren’t home yet. President Obama continues with Bush’s plans. The country approves, according to Gallup:
Of the seven specific issue approval ratings measured in a Sept. 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll, President Obama gets his highest rating (56%) on his handling of Iraq, and his lowest (38%) on the federal deficit. Obama’s approval ratings on handling the economy and healthcare, at 46% and 43%, respectively, are little changed over the past two months.
And a majority 57% disapprove of Health care. Hmmmm…. again.
A couple thoughts:
1. Did the Press talk down the Iraq War and drive President Bush’s Iraq numbers down? You know, body counts, incessant nattering about torture, etc.?
2. Did the American people actually want the wars just didn’t like the prosecution, the methods?
3. Are President Obama’s numbers so bad elsewhere, people want to be nice about something?
The latest Pew research came out today. Democrats should be gnashing their teeth. I’m shocked that the approval of Nancy’s House is as high as it is, but then, again, someone has to consistently vote Democrat. Looks like there ain’t nothing a Dem can do to tick off at least 1/3 of the electorate.
On a more depressing note for Democrats, there’s this:
Independents’ views of Congress shifted more dramatically in recent months than have opinions among Republicans or Democrats. Notably, independent voters who express an unfavorable view of Congress, say they would back the GOP candidate over the Democrat by a whopping 51% to 31% margin, while the smaller proportion of independent voters who have a positive view of Congress say they intend to vote for the Democrat, by 55% to 29%.
You know what this poll tells me? That the notion of an Independent voter is a myth. In the last election, irritated people who normally vote Republican voted for Barack Obama and Democrats generally because they 1) wanted to punish Republicans and 2) actually hoped Obama would bring fiscal restraint and change. Of course, that didn’t happen and these people are swinging back to home.
The minority of Independents who approve of the Democrats are closet Democrats. There are those who like to call themselves Independents because it sounds superior to say so.
Either a person is a statist or an individualist. That is, he either wants the government to step in and fix things or he wants to be left alone to figure it out. Most people of voting age are pretty clear which way they want things to go. They are either a Democrat or a Republican until they change their philosophy.
Of course, the problem for those voting Republican has been that elected Republicans have acted like statists. They have no where to turn.
The strategy for any dip in Obama poll numbers has been to put his most glorious mug everywhere and feel the polls (but not, so far, the oceans) rise. Alas, the strategy is fizzling. At least this time, for health care, the strategy fizzled.
What happened? Besides the distraction of putting his foot in his mouth over the Gates arrest, Obama said nothing new or even particularly interesting on Wednesday night about health care. The only really new statement made by Obama was that he would approve tax hikes on the middle class as long as they didn’t primarily pay for the reform bill. Until July 22nd, only Robert Gibbs had hinted at middle-class tax hikes for health-care reform.
How powerful is the press in creating the narrative around President Obama? His poll numbers have slipped and I’m wondering if their full court press can rescue him. Can shiny, happy, soft-focused coverage for a huge government health care plan change the poll numbers? Will President Obama’s cajoling, reasoned, pleading tones work on the American people?
The members of the press won’t ask any challenging questions of Obama because they believe the greater good to be served is that President Obama’s agenda must be served. Please note, the mainstream media won’t even report that Democrats are divided on the many provisions in different versions of bills never mind whether the whole thing is a good idea at all. They want this FOR OBAMA. Good poll numbers are key. Can they do it?
“As is well known, the word propaganda in Germany is used synonymously with the word advertising. Although in this country and in Great Britain propaganda has the unfortunate connotation of being free instead of being paid for, this distinction does not exist in Germany.”
Ah, yes, that unfortunate connotation of freedom! Interesting that this is the only negative connotation of “propaganda” at this time. In fact, the (American) author makes sure to point out that in the Hitler speech that follows the word “propaganda” should be read as “advertising.” Apparently, the trade mag wants credit for schooling the Führer.
The article then goes on to quote Hitler at length talking about something that Americans who worked in advertising at the time already believed: that the masses are morons who respond only to simple messages repeated thousands of times (a perspective I discuss at length in my book).
Seventy-some years later, this belief is as popular with the powers that be as it was in 1933. Which, if nothing else, provides a shred of evidence connecting the makers of the Head-On commercial to the Nazis.
I do believe that President Obama and the press believe that the American people are sheeple and need to be lead to the right conclusion rather then presented the evidence and be allowed to come to their own conclusions. I’m still wondering how effective the non-stop advertising will be here. We’ll see in the coming two weeks.
My thought: If President Obama’s numbers rise over the next two weeks in the face of the horrendous economic numbers and general distaste for the ever expanding government, President Obama and his beholden press possess extraordinary power to manipulate the masses.
Does this make the masses stupid? I’m not sure. When the only information people receive is distorted, biased and yet presented as objective fact, can the people be blamed for believing and giving their President the benefit of the doubt?
While President Obama vacationed and spent time overseas with the G8, his poll numbers went down at home. I recall how President Obama’s poll numbers dipped when he gave his World Presidency speech in Germany.
What I’m wondering now is whether the press will be able to bump his poll numbers. The economy is objectively bad. Despite all the sweet, candy-coated talk, the numbers are grim and people are feeling the misery.
Will a constant, unremitting sunny face time on prime time be enough to bring Obama’s poll numbers back from the brink of disaster? We’re about to find out.
Galluping Past Bad Polls
Will anyone hear about Obama’s bad polling numbers?
…how stupid was Gwen Ifill’s question? What is it with the Left’s sick perseverating on McCain’s decrepitude? Really, it’s to stoke fear over Sarah Palin: only problem everyone likes her.
So here is one of those on-line polls that is not at all valid and clearly swamped by Kos kids (because they have no jobs and can goof around like this all day). So, if you’re not too busy going to see An American Carol–you are going to see this, right?
You need to do both, really. It’s what everyone is doing.