Snow In Houston On December 10th, 2008
Wednesday, December 10th, 2008Snow in Houston On December 10th, 2008
Is Al Gore in Town? Stats here. I’m watching it snow! Woot!
Abandoning Land Lines For Cell Phones–A Lesson From Ike
Sunday, September 21st, 2008Many people give up land lines in favor of cell phones. I have friends who have done just that. They’re in their twenties, though. And even though they’ve settled down with a house and a kid, they still have no land line. Well. I haven’t spoken with them about their decision since the hurricane, but Ike confirmed one thing for me: it’s good to have a land line.
Cell towers, I found out, lose power too. When that happens communications come to a screeching halt. For a couple days, the only communication came via a land line. To me, it’s just a good security back-up and important in emergencies.
Our next door neighbors got stuck because they only have digital cord-less phones. Guess what happened when the power was gone? My husband laughs at me, but I keep two boring old phones around that require no batteries for just this purpose–one for upstairs and one for downstairs. And every time we’ve lost power, we’ve used them. In this case, we could let our neighbors borrow a phone.
Conclusion: Yes to land lines. Yes to old phones. It’s just good back up.
Hurricane Ike In Pictures
Friday, September 19th, 2008It is difficult to comprehend the devastation. Even seeing the aftermath, it is so overwhelming to take it all in. Boston.com has some pictures that might help you at least get a feel for it. Amazing, really.
Hurricane Ike: The Woodlands, Texas, Power Returning–Updated
Wednesday, September 17th, 2008Just wanted to let readers know that power is returning to parts of The Woodlands and should be up most places there by Friday. Landlines for phone and DSL are still out and cellular service is still spotty. No reports of injuries or deaths, though. Please share your information here.
Other posts about Ike here:
Hurricane Ike, Woodlands, Texas Frustration Edition
Hurricane Ike: Woodlands Evacuee Edition
Live Blogging Hurricane Ike from The Woodlands, Texas
Also note, I’m blogging about other stuff too.
Updated:
People around the Houston area suffer worse. More here:
Residents again waited in line for hours Tuesday at the nearly two dozen supply distribution centers set up in Houston to hand out food, water and ice. Mayor Bill White complained the Federal Emergency Management Agency wasn’t bringing in the supplies fast enough, and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett had personally taken over coordination of efforts to hand out relief supplies.
A note about FEMA and relief supplies to the area. The government is not known for responsiveness, are they? Think DMV. So, relying on them for help seems misguided. That doesn’t excuse FEMA, though. The problem is the “assessment” stage. That takes a couple days. Well by Day 3 post storm, ice is a necessity to save the food a person does have.
I’m not going to say “I told you so”, but man. The problem isn’t often the storm. It’s the lack of power, water and communication after the storm. I could not understand why more people weren’t evacuated–especially those fragile and needing physical help. With families spread out, people are often alone and without support. Also, I know the elderly don’t like to leave home, but if family is offering help, it is wise to take up the offer and go.
UPDATED AGAIN:
I’ve been out of sorts being out of town and out of my schedule. Just noticed that Glenn Reynolds linked again. Thanks! He asks:
Why do hurricanes that hit Texas get so much less attention than hurricanes that hit New Orleans?
UPDATE: Another reader emails: ‘If you want to discuss lack of coverage, wasn’t the hurricane that hit New Orleans the same hurricane that nearly wiped the Mississippi gulf coast off the map?” Yes. Why did New Orleans get so much more attention? Is it because the media wanted to paint the Bush Administration as racially insensitive, or is New Orleans just the only place they could find on a map?
Well, there’s definitely that. New Orleans is an old liberal city. The left loves it because it’s the “most European” city in America. It has history and culture. It has jazz and gumbo. It also has crime and poverty and corruption. It has haves and have-nots. In short, it’s the perfect Leftist city.
In contrast, while Houston has millions more people. It has the oil business and nasty refineries. (It also has more shows than Broadway, but don’t tell liberals.) Basically, Houston just isn’t sexy. But it has jobs and a thriving economy. I guess that’s boring–a basically functional, working city.
Hurricane Ike: The Woodlands, Texas Frustration Edition–UPDATED
Tuesday, September 16th, 2008Hi all. I write you from Hattisburg, Mississippi. We’re heading toward Florida to be with family there and maybe go to Disney World. We have unused passes and might be able to get free passes in any event, so we’ll make this hurricane a time to remember. Better than sitting around and sweating.
If you’re keeping up with the comments, there are some panicky messages. One thing I forgot to tell you people, mostly because I didn’t know then, but my husband told me (who heard it from some guy), is that FEMA was blocking cell and phone line transmissiom from The Woodlands in order to keep government lines open. I’ve tried to find solid information about this because it sounded like some conspiracy theory. However, my cellular service went dead at the same time as my landlines and both are AT&T. My husbands, which is Sprint, did not. In fact, one thing we’ve learned through this is that it’s good to have two types of service because at one time or another they’ve been on and off. They both went off at the same time on Sunday, but his came back around. Our own experience would seem to indicate that the FEMA rumor is not true.
IF FEMA does, in fact, dedicate all transmission lines to free them for emergency personnel and maintenance, etc., then there has got to be a better way to deal with things. Or another way must be found.
Only three things that really matter during the peak of a crisis:
1. Water–you need enough water to drink to survive. You can survive without food for a couple days if you have to.
2. Communications–you need to be able to get information. It is the water of life. If you can’t communicate with someone, you can’t tell them what you need and you can’t help someone in need. It is impossible, for example, for people who have information to share it with people in The Woodlands because they may have no way to receive it.
3. Fuel–People caught without fuel are in dire straits. If the crisis is bad enough, fleeing is the only sensible answer. Your mother’s antique china be damned.
So, a woman in the comments got her boyfriend a ticket out, but has no way to communicate to him and he has no way to get to the airport. I can assure you, people are getting very protective about the fuel they do have, at this point. Gas stations need power to pump gas out, so if they don’t have power, they can’t sell gas. See the problem? So, in The Woodlands, there might even be gas, but it’s going to be stuck underground until the stations get generators.
In anticipation of the storm, HEB brought in massive generators before it hit. This was a risk, of course, because the storm could have destroyed the generator. Turns out, it was a good risk. Mind you, though, if a person doesn’t have enough gas to get to the store, it doesn’t matter. And HEB didn’t have ice when I went. And at that point, I didn’t need food as I had plenty. I needed ice.
This brings me back around to communications. You know a good way to freak people out? Cut off communication, they have no ability to find out where to find resources. So, by rumor mill, I heard that there was ice at the Shenendoah municipal building, but that had changed to The Woodlands High School football stadium. Guess what? That’s wasting a hell of a lot of gas on a rumor that may or may not be true, and what if there is no ice once making the trek there? Communication is essential.
Last night, we made the decision to leave. Our neighbors, who we’ve had intermittent contact with (again undermining the FEMA rumor, but I’ve look for the facts on this) are staying. By all accounts, things are safe and sound, but people are staying to protect property, essentially. Without food and water, though, this proposition gets wearisome, if not impossible.
Part of it, at this point, is no routine has been established. People are ever hopeful that the power will be on quickly. It would be good if people knew if there was going to be a set time–three weeks.
It also seems to me that a 50′s era community nuclear fallout plan should be in place. Remember when schools and communities had the sirens and the running into the basement? Well, disasters can happen. Obviously, they do happen. Shouldn’t every neighborhood, every village, every community have a set plan in place? And I don’t think it should be a FEMA run deal. Because of the damage assessments that they and the power companies do, people are ON THEIR OWN for at least three days, I’d say closer to a week, really. And really, who wants their life to be in the hand of the government except when we’re at war or something? So, communities need plans–to gather information, share resources and not duplicate efforts. How many people in my neighborhood wasted gas by driving all over looking for, ironically, gas? I’d bet lots of people.
So, from what I hear, this is how things are: food and water are running low unless someone is very well provisioned, gas is still scarce, ice is difficult to come by, and people are just staying to protect hearth and home and doing so without clean water, land lines, and electricity. Neighborhoods are coming together. Neighbors are looking out for each other.
Entergy–Energy status for The Woodlands
Food/ice/water–It looks like Magnolia and Tomball are more up and running. Chik-Fil-A in Magnolia folks. Hey, it’s something.
Also this: Fellowship of The Woodlands will have MRE’s and Ice.
Huntsville seemed to be “open”. So if someone wants to make a drive for food, it might be worth it. Of course, beware of fuel usage.
More at KHOU.
On the way out of Texas, we saw huge convoys of Army guys, electric company trucks, etc. Resources are coming, but where are they going? Galveston was pretty nearly devastated. So, I’m guessing resources go there first. I don’t know.
FEMA’s phone number: 1-800-621-3362 If they’re like any other gov’t entity, knock early, knock often. And be prepared to wait in line and fill out lots of paperwork.
Montgomery County damage reports here (by residents).
Houston Chronicle here. Judging by their coverage, it’s all Galveston all the time. It’s a mess down there. Many people, including a blog friend’s (Robbie Cooper of UrbanGrounds) brother and in laws lost homes. We met a lady at the hotel who had “nothing to go home to”. What a horrible thing to contemplate.
I won’t be some place permanent until tomorrow night. In the meantime, keep checking my tweets.
UPDATED:
Power restored throughout parts of The Woodlands. My neighborhood came on line tonight. Got a call from my lovely next door neighbor.
Post Hurricane Ike Evacuation–Updated
Sunday, September 14th, 2008Tonight we made an executive decision to evacuate. While Houston is coming back online, certain areas like The Woodlands will not be put back together for some time.
Phone service, power and even cellular service is spotty. No communication and no air conditioning do not make for happiness in Houston.
Where we live us so densely populated, that getting enough generators and the fuel necessary to run them is an issue.
Certain neighborhoods look like war zones. Every house on my street had at least one major tree down. We are fortunate. Many, many people are not so lucky.
Between water and structural and roof damage, many people will be suffering. I cannot fathom the insurance claims. It will be staggering.
I will write more later. We made the decision to go for now. Please consider giving to the Red Cross or United Way. They are operating at a loss right now. I cannot overemphasize the need. Thank you all for the well wishes. We are safe and our home is ok–one leak. We have some trees that will have to go.
We also will be without income for a while. That’s a worry for another day.
Update:
I just got a text from ATT and the CDC, Center for Disease Control, saying that the Woodlands and Conroe now are under a boil water notice. Please confirm, although this makes sense.
Also, people living in Orange have had power restored by Entergy. Only 3% restored overall.
Heard that Army is bringing in generators for gas and grocery stores, but I should note that we saw no convoys or anything going toward Houston.
Marisco Place, a street near the bayou off of Gosling had multiple power lines down and significant damage. Grogan’s Point was blocked in for one day, but crews from the Woodlands Operating Company were in there. More trees down there than in other places in the Woodlands. Power lines down on Sawdust. This info is good as of yesterday evening.
Updates again:
Roof of Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavillion blown off.
Yesterday, as I schlepped the leaves and branches with rake and broom, my neighbor asked me “don’t you have a blower?” I just looked at him. Pretty funny. That little thing called electricity…
Live Blogging Hurricane Ike From The Woodlands, Texas
Friday, September 12th, 20084:10 AM CST Going to try to sleep for a bit. Wind is whistling. Actually thought one of the kids was crying, but it’s the wind. Raining still. Still have power. Truly. Astounding. I didn’t think we’d still have it at this point, not that I’m complaining. Much of Houston is out of power by all accounts. Next update will be around 7:00 AM CST, or sooner, if I can’t sleep. And there’s a good chance of that. I am sitting here sans caffeine. I’ll pay tomorrow though. Wind is really beating up the trees. Branches are off. Just turned on the outside light. Yard is a mess. It will be delightful cleaning all this up.
3:40 AM CST By predictions below, right now, for the next 30 minutes will be the worst here. So far, I’d agree. Non-stop winds right now. Raining finally and that blue lightning. I’ve never seen anything like it. The wind is constant and then it gusts. After this half hour passes, I’m going to try to sleep for a bit. The worst should be over by 8:30 AM CST, for us in The Woodlands. Still have power and it hasn’t been surging like it was. Much of Houston has lost power, though.
3:15 AM CST High Tide hits at 3:23 AM. I thought I’d relink the Surge Data page. Holeee Cow. Check out Port Arthur and Clear Lake. Clear Lake is heavily populated. It’s going to be awful tomorrow morning.
Here in The Woodlands, there is heavy duty wind and the occasional blue lightning which is very strange.
3:00 AM CST I don’t know how much longer we’ll have power. The wind is incredible. Gusts are really something. My mom noted something interesting–maybe the reason we don’t have huge media coverage with big names is because they’re covering the “real” hurricane: Sarah Palin. Poor Alaska, being swamped by those guys. I’d almost rather have the gusty wind. The Big Media windbags are full of hot air and may not destroy your homes, but I’ve heard rumors that they suck your soul.
2:55 AM CST: Eric Berger is the other guy still blogging and still awake here. He has an update and says this (he has pictures):
The latest wind speed forecasts also suggest that most of Harris County, outside of the county’s southeastern quarter, may not see sustained hurricane-force winds as Ike moves inland and up the western edge of Galveston Bay. There will be hurricane-force gusts, of course, and these are already occurring in some areas.
Chambers and Liberty county have a much better chance of seeing sustained hurricane-force winds.
While hurricane-force gusts will be enough wind to knock power out to most of Houston — the total of those losing power is approaching 75 percent of all metro area customers — it shouldn’t be strong enough to substantially damage a significant number of inland homes.
The wind is worsening. The gusts are impressive. And by impressive, they would push me across the backyard if I was standing in it, just to give you an idea.
Right now, Galveston is experiencing high tide just as the back side of the eye wall hits. I fear for the people who stayed. The leaders just didn’t have enough urgency about this storm. Grrrrr…..
2:30 AM CST Winds are really picking up here in The Woodlands. Turned off the exterior lights, so don’t know if it’s finally raining. Where is the rain? This storm is so insanely weird. Huge, huge gusts right now. Yikes!!!! Haven’t lost power yet.
2:15 AM CST Wanna watch something funny while you’re riding out the storm? Sure you do.
1:36 AM CST Can’t sleep, live around Houston and want to add your information to the record? Go here. Twitter is an amazing tool, folks. People are reporting from all over the city. Tomorrow, it will be invaluable. Want to know where power lines are down? Want to know what’s open and not? Twitter will be your friend.
A note on technology: Between the internet and phone connection, it’s almost impossible to fathom going through this without the connections. Friends living in Poland and Australia have been emailing and IMing me. Family and friends all around the country keep in touch via text, IM, my blog and Twitter. It is amazing. In addition, Galveston was destroyed in the Great Hurricane of 1900–and the people were lost during that first devastating hurricane. The weather predictions this time have been so accurate. Lives have been saved–if the people listened.
1:00 AM CST Wind coming and going. John Little reporting that historic Brennan’s Restaurant burned to the ground. Dang! That was on my to-do list. John is also reporting this:
Fire between smith and brazos.HPD dispatcher just said “HFD is sending everything they got” not sure what that means but it sounds bad.
Okay, this is just nuts. One of my blog heroes, Jim Hoft, aka Gateway Pundit, linked to me. Do you know how many times I’ve linked this workhorse of a blogger? He is amazing. Thanks, Jim! You totally rock.
For the doofuses still in Galveston and thinking you’ve “escaped”. Um, hello, people! High tide is still coming and the storm surge is not done, yet. The worst comes on the back endfront of the storm. That starts two hours from now. The eye wall, back side, seems to be hitting Galveston, or beginning to at 2:00 AM CST.
Going to get a snack. Blood sugar crashing.
12:30 PM CST Hardly any rain. Weird. Still windy. Huge fire reported by FOX down town Houston. Not. Good. No way to stop it. Note to people: In case you’re considering it, don’t get in your car and go anywhere. The wind gusts will blow you off the road.
Here’s the tidal predictions at NOAA.
Brendan Loy is calling this “The Great Galveston Hurricane of 2008″. Catchy. He has more good information.
Here is the latest from my Exxon-Mobil insider. Please note: This is for The Woodlands, TX 77382:
Sustained winds
25+ mph already happening — duration: 19+ hours
39+ mph already happening — duration 14+ hours
58+ mph starting at 0034 CDT — duration: 8 hours, 35 min.
74+ mph starting at 0342 CDT — duration: 0 hours, 21 minutesGusts up to 116 mph at peak around 0400
Point of closest approach of center: 13/0700 CDT — 11 miles
12:20 PM CST From my mom via IM, “Do we really need to witness the last moments of Geraldo’s life. And where’s Anderson Cooper?” I’m howling. See where I get my smart ass sense of humor?
Via Twitter, the Hospital District is reporting flooding. During Tropical Storm Allison, they flooded badly and lost a lot of very important research being conducted in the labs. The hospital district has a vast underground tunnel network. Only Texas Children’s had flood protection doors built however many years ago that was. I’m hoping they’ve built more now.
Winds are Ka-razy now.
12:05 PM CST We have a huge, maybe 60 foot tall pine tree in the front yard. And then some other trees, too. Everyone in this planned community has tons of trees. It’s called The Woodlands for a reason. Tomorrow, there will be loads of downed trees and branches. If the clanging on my roof is any indication, there will be lots of new roofs needed, too. I’m trying to fathom the insurance bills from all this.
11:50 PM CST Disturbing pictures and more info here. Here’s the Twitter Disaster Watch Feed.
11:30 PM CST Just showered. Large scale exfoliation and smooth legs. I’m going into Ike smelling like a rose. Not sure I’ll come out of it the same. Sorry, for the pun. I’m getting tired and punchy.
Electricity browning out right now. Not sure how long I am for this blog. Watching Geraldo being blown into a palm tree. One of these days, a storm is going to suck him into the waves and he’ll be a goner. And will he have a huge wake? Okay, I’m sorry. That’s bad, too.
Strong gusts. John Little reports 600K without power. Might lose it here, too.
11:01 PM CST More at Texas Rainmaker who says “guess we picked the wrong hurricane to ride out.”
Here’s my thoughts as of now–Tomorrow and maybe the next day, people will try to get out because there won’t be power and it will be hot as hell, except that there won’t be anywhere to go. Misery. And there will be misery in shelters, too, of a different kind.
10:45 PM CST Michelle Malkin linked here. Thanks, Michelle. She and I met at the AFP Conference in Austin. Yes, she’s as nice in person as she is in writing. She has a good round-up.
Winds coming and going. Some people have asked because they have family here, where exactly, I am. I live in the Village of Panther Creek which is about four miles off of I-45. I’m near McCullough High School, for what it’s worth.
We have many friends and contacts within the oil industry and they feed me information every so often. I think people need to understand how profoundly the refining being down is going to affect the nation. Even if the refineries could get back going the minute the storm passes, it will take at least a week to get going again. And, it should be noted, the refineries will not get going the minute the storm passes. America needs to build more.
The Houston Chronicle is liveblogging and reports that Humble is under curfew.
10:30 CST The winds are BAD and it is nowhere near the worst time. The worst is supposed to be here (The Woodlands, Texas) at 5 AM. See below for the details.
More from LawHawk. He thinks it was a “huge mistake” that Bill White didn’t do a large scale evacuation. I 100% agree and have been saying so for two days. Scroll down for my own comment on the subject.
I don’t think I’ll be sleeping tonight.
10:16 PM CST There’s always a smartass. Watching the wind blowing Geraldo around on Fox. Hearing more huge branches come down. Shizen! Don’t like that. (Oh, huge gusts. 110 mph sustained winds on Galveston.)
Okay, here’s more info via Rorschach who also is here in Texas says about the 20% number I said earlier about refining:
eh, yes and no. yes you are correct but it is a little more complex than that. it takse an average of 3 days for refineries to shut down safely. and another week to come back on line. once a shutdown starts, you have to follow it through to full shutdown before you restart. so refineries that are in the cone of uncertainty at three days prior to landfall must make a decision to shutdown before they know where the storm is going to go. so all the refineries from corpus to NOLA shut down.
For what it’s worth, here’s Rorshach’s credentials:
full disclosure, a division of my company has an industrial nitrogen division which services the refineries to help “inert” the chemical reactors at the refineries. They have been busier than one armed paper hangers.
I hope they got the job done.
10:05 PM CST Structural damage to homes and businesses in Galveston, via FOX. HUGE wind gusts now in The Woodlands. Looking at the satellite, the eye of the storm is nice and firm. Horrible timing for Houston. The hurricane is strengthening as it hits land. Yikes.
Here are the economic consequences. Reports of $6.00/gallon gas in Tennessee. Just a reminder: 20% of refined oil comes from Houston. What happens here, affects the whole country.
9:45 PM CST Instalanched!!! Thanks for the link, Glenn. He says:
Watching TV a bit earlier, the Insta-Wife commented that politicians aren’t making a big deal about Ike the way they did about Gustav. That’s true.
I think everyone has been in la-la land. I’m wondering if it’s New Orleans bias or just political expedience. I think it might be the former because the government officials have been more relaxed in their demeanor, even here in Houston. It has been absolutely mind-boggling to me. This storm is huge and powerful and the Houston area has nearly 6 million residents. Only 1 million evacuated. The potential for loss of life is huge.
As of this writing, the wind is kicking up and much worse than we experienced during the entire Rita hurricane.
Waiting on the NHS to update. John Little is still going for now.
9:21 CST Brendan Loy angry about the 24,000 people likely still in Galveston. Yup. That’s what I’ve been saying. Wholly irresponsible. And I’m sorry, since taxpayer dollar go to saving them, if they’re even savable, they should be forced to leave.
9:12 CST Fox reporting a levee went in Louisiana flooding “hundreds” of homes.
9:02 CST Houblog estimates the numbers about who stayed behind and what it could mean:
Good Lord. That’s twice what I expected. [40% of residents stayed rather than evacuate.] If that proportion is the same for for zones A and B (areas that “never flood”)…
US Census: Galveston county popuation, 283,551, for both island and mainland. Clear lake is 65k. Power’s getting iffy again, can’t research more.
Toss in southern Harris county near the bay, Chambers county and so on, if that % holds true, there could be 300,000-500,000 people at risk.
Here’s a page Brendan Loy created about the surge problems.
8:38 CST Huge wind pick up. I’m thinking we’ll eventually have to bring the kiddos downstairs. Report of a fire on Galveston Island on the West end. There’s no way to get to them to see what is going on. Also, 200,000 without power via Centerpoint Energy. Back down to 105,000. That’s good. Flickering here.
At 9:00 CST Galveston shuts down. Police have been having to order people off the seawall. I do believe people have a suicidal impulse. What the heck? A whole psychological study could be done on people denying reality and willing to die rather than move out of fantasy land. Sheesh.
Also, dear reader Burnside sent me kind wishes and also this link, which I agree is the BEST storm tracking site I’ve seen: StormPulse.com
If one more talking head says HUNKER DOWN, I’m smashing some pumpkin heads. The phrase makes me feel violence. That’s it. I’m counting the times I hear it. Three times in the last minute.
8:16 PM CST Power just surged. Stink. Don’t want it to go this quickly. The wind is gusting. It’s dark, so I can’t see, but I can hear. The wind is steadily blowing now.
A commenter at Brendan Loy’s place explains what happened to Navarre Beach, an island similar to Galveston near Pensacola (I can personally attest to his report as I have been by there nearly every year, including the year of the hurricane):
In response to “how long will Galveston Island be down?” question you mentioned from Eric’s chat: During hurricane Opal Navarre Island and Pensacola Beach in FL endured a similar flood. Although they had no sea wall to protect from the frontal assault, the water and power infrastructure was completely wiped out – and I’ve recently heard on local Houston TV that the city/county officials expect Galveston’s infrastructure to be similarly destroyed. This is not a matter of simply stringing power lines back up – as will be necessary inland. Sewer and water lines will need to be completely re-laid (if possible). Parts of Navarre Island had no power and water restored for up to a year or more, and in many, many areas along the Gulf Coast there, the damage is still horribly present more than 10 years on. Channels scoured through the barrier islands are still barely above the high tide line. Highways, bridges and causeways that were ‘bulldozed’ by Opal (and later Ivan) took years to replace. It’s also important to note, as Dr. Masters does, that the seawall only protects against some amount of the frontal inland thrust of the water – when it begins to flow outward again the wall will not impede the rapid outflow of the same water. Hope and pray for the best but, in the worst case, the barrier islands in the path of greatest surge may be significantly altered for the foreseeable future.
As an aside, I am going to complain, again, about the evacuation. I think the fact that many people got stuck on I-45 for hours evacuating after Rita made officials nervous about doing a large-scale evacuation. I have said, and I’m saying it again: THEY MADE A MISTAKE. Let me tell you what is worse than having to pee on the side of the road because you’re stuck for a while: being stuck in a city that is flooded, with no electricity, not enough food and downed power lines. When everyone wakes up tomorrow, they are going to wish to high heaven they are anywhere but downtown Houston.
I hope I am wrong about all this. I want to be wrong. Time will tell.
Also, there is now a Tornado Watch on here. That’s unsurprising. What I don’t know, is how the difference between gusty winds and a tornado. We’ll see.
7:21 PM CST Just got the mail and got a nugget of goodness: Veranda Magazine. Did I tell you people that in addition to pop musack, I like shelter magazines? Well, I do. So, as long as I have electricity, I’ll be blogging, freezing (turned the A/C down in anticipation of the power going out), watching the news, and now, reading my magazine.
Oh, wanted to remind you. You can follow my tweets, which are short blurbs and blogs under 140 words. If the power goes, I will continue to tweet from my iPhone. So go here and sign up.
Big gusts of wind and a beautiful pink, puffy clouded sunset. Surreal.
7:00 PM CST Off to bed for the kids. I hope they sleep through the whole thing. I don’t have enough batteries, but I’ll use my iPhone as a flashlight, which I do all the time anyway. Hey, it works perfectly! Not too much blaring light. Just enough.
Wind is kicking up seriously, now. It is starting. No rain yet.
6:28 PM CSTI’m putting the updates at the top–contra-flow if you will. It will be easier to read, if you’re coming back. From Instapundit:
MORE ON IKE FROM BRENDAN LOY, who says a storm surge catastrophe is likely. Meanwhile in Knoxville we’ve got storm-generated gas shortages, but there are no lines. In fact, I drove by an Exxon station a little while ago that looked deserted, and I wondered if it was because they were out of gas. But no, they had gas — at $4.69 a gallon. Pricing signals work . . . .
I’m wondering about the contempt the coasts feel about refineries. You know, a damaged Texas coast will be damaging their pocketbooks shortly. I can’t say that I feel that sorry, except it affects my pocketbook too.
Right now the wind is gusty. This is only the beginning. To remind everyone:
Here’s the advisory for The Woodlands, Texas again:
Hurricane Ike Wind Profile for 77382
Issued: 1100 CDT 12 Sep, 2008
Wind profile graph
Expected First Onset and Duration of Sustained Winds
Wind Start Date / Time Duration End Date / Time
25+ mph 12/1126 CDT 30 hours, 15 minutes 13/1741 CDT
39+ mph 12/2029 CDT 17 hours, 32 minutes 13/1401 CDT
58+ mph 13/0058 CDT 8 hours, 36 minutes 13/0935 CDT74+ mph 13/0401 CDT 0 hours, 54 minutes 13/0456 CDT
Point of Closest Approach of Center:
13/0800 CDT — 4 miles at Azimuth 262.0 degrees (SW)The eye of the storm will pass 4 MILES from zip code 77382. I’m in zip code 77381 and the eye is predicted to pass directly over here.
Geraldo is reporting a family roped together on a roof down by the coast. I cannot even tell you how bad this pisses me off. He is rightly saying that, “the dark will mask the horror”. It was clearly doom. What is wrong with people? The arrogance and ignorance displayed here. And again, I’m not sure who is the bigger problem–the officials for letting people stay and not telling them to get out at gun point or the people for being so completely moronic.
6:09 [18:09 Military Time] p.m. here. There is cloud cover, no rain and lots of wind. The Hurricane will hit as a Category 3, not that it makes a difference. Unfortunately, people seem to be putting too much stock in the Category level rather than the damage that can be done because of the storm surge. The “worst case scenario” is happening in Galveston.
John Little is reporting looters on the Houston scanner–people taking equipment from a construction site. A pox on all their houses. These people are the lowest forms of scum. He is also reporting high winds and says that things are “deteriorating fast”. Follow his tweets at Twitter here.
Hurricane Ike Already Overwhelming Galveston Island–UPDATING UNTIL I START LIVE BLOGGING TONIGHT 6 CST
Friday, September 12th, 2008Like I told you peeps before, I’m north of Houston. So far, sunshine and breeziness. Galveston succumbs to the surging gulf as I write this. (Here’s a link for the webcams.) Here is what an Exxon-Mobile insider wrote me (they have their own forecasting methods and they have to be accurate because of their rigs):
Now, the forecasters say to expect 25+ mph sustained winds beginning today @ 1403 CDT, and lasting for 27 hours, 8 minutes.
Of that time, we can expect 39+ mph sustained winds beginning at 1909 CDT, and lasting 17 hours, 32 minutes.
Also, of that time, we can expect 58+ mph sustained winds beginning late tonight @ 2308 CDT, and lasting for 9 hours, 26 minutes
This category is new — 74+ mph sustained winds beginning tomorrow early @ 0127 CDT, and lasting for 2 hours, 43 minutes
The expected highest sustained winds are forecasted to be about 81 mph., with gusts up to 118 mph.
Lastly, the eye of the storm is expected to pass within 20 miles of our zip code tomorrow morning @ 0600 CDT
Please note: This forecast is specifically for the zip code 77381. That is in The Woodlands, Texas. And that is as of an hour ago. So, it is constantly adjusting. As I learn more, I will share it.
The Woodlands and areas north of Houston will have to deal with wind damage and spin-off tornadoes.
Here is my concerns going forward:
1. Too many people. I am alarmed that more of Houston hasn’t evacuated and it’s not because of the storm itself, which will be bad enough. It’s because of the aftermath. Without power, people will be hot. Without power, people can’t cook. Without water, stores can’t be open. People will be stuck in their homes while crews try to clean up the mess.
2. Complacency. I noted this before. People just aren’t taking this storm seriously and I don’t get it. It’s massive. It is directly hitting the fourth largest city in the United States. New Orleans is the fraction of Houston’s size. So, the people left have been kinda lax. I hope they are well-provisioned. I’m not sure they’ve taken enough care.
3. Trauma fatigue. Houston has been in the helping position for a long time. Now, they’re going to need help. People are weary. I’ve said this before. But a lot of energy has been expended here over the past couple of years helping others in their time of need. People are worn out. This is not good. I include myself in this. A person cannot stay hyper alert forever. So, alarmingly, I’m still seeing Galveston residents finally waking up and leaving. Finally.
Far too many people are staying in low lying areas of Houston. What in the hell? People need to get out. They’re not doing it. They don’t want to drive. They don’t want to go anywhere. They’re tired. Well, I fear too many people are going to be dead tired before this is all over.
I don’t know if it’s the newsmedia or the city leadership or what, but there doesn’t seem to be enough urgency about this storm. I don’t get it. The media seems to be smitten with New Orleans and every other American city can just suffer, I guess. What the hell?
New Orleans has the historic French Quarter. That’s all well and good. Houston is full of people. Lots of them; nearly six million of them. In addition, Houston refines America’s oil. You know those distasteful things called refineries that Californians don’t want? Well, they get their gas from Texas. Everyone should be concerned about the safety of oil rigs and refineries. If they haven’t been, they will be soon.
Brendan Loy has a lot more. As the storm comes up, I’ll be live blogging it. Most of the night. Right now, I think I’m going to take nap, so I can stay up late. The wind is starting to blow and the sky is cloudy. Nothing big yet. The dogs are still outside and not freaking out. They usually go crazy when bad weather comes.
You can follow me at Twitter, too. I’ll update there. That’s easier. Short and sweet tweets! As long as I have power…….friends north of here have a generator. We might be visiting them if the power goes out!
UPDATED: My friend John Little is live blogging the hurricane from downtown Houston. You can also follow his tweets on Twitter here. He is about 20 miles closer to the coast than I am here.
More from Houblog who is in Houston and is boarded up:
No traffic out there. Great time to evacuate, people.
As one reporter pointed out last night, the storm surge is going to arrive tonight in the dark, after power has failed. And as I put it, your current opinion of the foolishness of evacuating is going to be pretty damned cold comfort, when you’re standing in chest deep water, trying to shove granny on the roof in 95mph winds (and waves). Hint: it ain’t happening. You’re toast.
Personally, I’d like to urge the folks in Zones Coastal and A who chose to remain behind to follow these instructions:
Instead of relying o n a “Good Samaritan” policy – the fantasy in New Orleans that everyone would take care of the neighbors – the Virginia rescue workers go door to door. If people resist the plea to leave, Mr. Judkins told The Daily Press in Newport News, rescue workers give them Magic Markers and ask them to write their Social Security numbers o n their body parts so they can be identified.
“It’s cold, but it’s effective,” Mr. Judkins explained.
I hear hammers. Someone else is boarding up. Not like I can look out my window to see who…
EVACUATE NOW! If you are in low lying areas of Houston, if you live in rickety homes anywhere, get out, now. The roads are clear sailing to anywhere you want to go and you can still beat the storm. There is no reason to go down with your house.
Ok, enough preaching. Time for sleeping. I’ll be back in a bit to update. Winds have died down again. It comes in gusts.
UPDATE:
Here’s the advisory for The Woodlands, Texas again:
Hurricane Ike Wind Profile for 77382
Issued: 1100 CDT 12 Sep, 2008
Wind profile graph
Expected First Onset and Duration of Sustained Winds
Wind Start Date / Time Duration End Date / Time
25+ mph 12/1126 CDT 30 hours, 15 minutes 13/1741 CDT
39+ mph 12/2029 CDT 17 hours, 32 minutes 13/1401 CDT
58+ mph 13/0058 CDT 8 hours, 36 minutes 13/0935 CDT
74+ mph 13/0401 CDT 0 hours, 54 minutes 13/0456 CDT
Point of Closest Approach of Center:
13/0800 CDT — 4 miles at Azimuth 262.0 degrees (SW)
The eye of the storm will pass 4 MILES from zip code 77382. I’m in zip code 77381 and the eye is predicted to pass directly over here.
There will be sustained winds of 74 mph for an hour tomorrow morning around 5 a.m. At this point, I’m just hoping the kids sleep through it.
My biggest concerns up here are two-fold: flying debris and branches breaking windows due to wind and no power. There’s a good chance we’ll be without power for a couple days. It is 95 degrees here. After the storm and no power, we’ll be in the car and visiting our friends (if they don’t flood) who have a generator. We’re not fair-weather friends. We’re bad weather friends!
Also, for the tools still holding out on Galveston. You do realize that when someone has to rescue your sorry ass you’re putting someone’s son, brother, friend, at risk, right? I just heard on Fox a Galveston commissioner staying on the island with her family. WTH? Downed power, fires, electrocution, there are many ways to die during this thing and drowning is not the least of them.
Ike Cometh–Houston, Texas Beware
Thursday, September 11th, 2008Woodlands, Texas residents are shopping, filling their cars, rumo has it that the schools (CISD Closed 9/12) will be closed [here's the list of closings] tomorrow and traffic is at a stand-still on 242 and I-45. Already. HEB Central Market parked a generator as of 8:30 this morning out back. Lines snake out of every gas station that I passed. People sport the business-like intensity that I’ve come to recognize after a couple storms.
Ike looks like he might be coming “down the pipe”. What that means is that Galveston and then Houston could be in the direct path of a Cat 4 hurricane (if it bumps slightly up).
People are storm weary here and so preparations have been last minute. I think many people, if they were like me, hoped that if they wanted it bad enough, Ike would stay south. Well, that’s not happening. Now the business of putting away stuff that can go airborne, filling propane tanks, making sure there’s enough water, falls to today and everyone is doing the same thing at the same time.
What will happen:
There will be lots of rain. Downtown will flood. Tropical storm Allison came over the area, parked and was exceedingly destructive. Low-lying areas around will flood again.
Trees will go down. You can stay in town, but you might be stuck. This happened to friends. Two huge trees got uprooted during Hurricane Rita and while they had food, gas and provisions, they couldn’t go anywhere because huge trees blocked the streets. Wind will be the major problem where I live That and any tornadoes that spin off. Below is the most concerning graphic for those of us off the coastal areas: wind. We will get over 100 mph winds, if forecasts are right. If you haven’t been in winds that strong, let me assure you, it’s scary shit. Winds at 80 mph are no picnic, either.
Power will go out. Likely, there will be rolling blackouts. The places hardest hit won’t have electricity at all. Some for weeks. I cannot adequately convey how bad that sucks when the temperature is 95 degrees. I just want to note here that people in parts of Baton Rouge STILL do not have electricity after the hurricane a week and a half ago. Misery and stink set in quickly.
People will run out of perishables. I know. You think, I need lots of canned goods and you do. But with rolling blackouts, your fridge’s contents won’t go all bad (have water bottles frozen–you’ll have water and it will keep the fridge cold) and two days into everything, you’re looking at your kids and thinking. Shizen! I want to make them something hot. Like I said, too, don’t assume you won’t have someone who needs your help. You’ll go through food quicker.
After the storm, it will be eerie. No noise. No cars. No people. You’ll be aware, suddenly, of how many people left. Likely, way more people than you thought. So, what occurs to you is, Crap! It’s just me and the criminals. Houston police did a great job during the last storm by all accounts. There was no looting or nefarious behavior. So, that’s good, but Rita was not a direct hit, either. Ike is coming more directly at us and Houston is on the “bad” side of the storm, as of now.
Anyway, it has already begun. I’ll keep you updated. Galveston Island, Brazoria County, and parts of Harris County along the coast are evacuating right now.
Also, Brendan Loy says this:
Regardless of our slight disagreement on that issue, Sullivan makes a couple of other really good points. For one, he writes, “I do think [the double eyewall weirdness] may induce exceptional tornado risk when [Ike] moves inland and begins to disintegrate.” In comments here, he emphasizes this point again: “I think it is time to start talking about tornadoes. That odd core structure could be a killer, at a considerable distance inland.”
Also:
The effects of Ike may not be that concentrated, but they will be very widespread. With the prolonged run of onshore winds on northeast Texas coast, several tidal cycles may back up into the marshlands, just as floodwaters from inland rains try to head seaward. This could result in a prolonged and dramatic immersion of low-lying areas, compounded by wind-driven waves.
Sticking with the storm surge theme, “Ubu Roi” at Houblog makes another good point: “That wide wind field may be keeping the current velocity low, but it also is allowing Ike to build up one hell of a dome of water to ride atop.” Indeed.
In other words, even if Sullivan is right that Ike will never escape its current Category 2 limbo, this hurricane is still going to be a pretty big deal. (And if it does finally “tighten” into a Cat. 3/4, it’ll be an even bigger deal, obviously. In Ubu’s words: “If it tightens up, and the wind speeds up in the next 24-36 hours, it would be even worse than if it were tight now.”)
Here’s what makes me nervous: there has been an odd reticence (myself included) to get hyped up about this storm. There have been so many that have been screeched about in breathless detail that it is easy to get complacent. I think Houstonians may be being complacent about this storm. And there are a lot of Houstonians. Five million people stuck is a hell of a lot of people.
UPDATE:
More from Brendan–
In other words, the best case scenario is that Ike continues to confound expectations, remains a surface-level Category 1 hurricane (which it effectively is right now), and hits Texas with a storm surge of the sort that might ordinarily be generated by a Cat 4-5. Or, to be more precise, without the narrow peak a Cat 4-5 would generate just east of its eye, but with an even broader swath of serious flooding. The worst case scenario is that Ike confounds expectations by tying together its upper and lower circulation, its eyewall gets replaced, and it suddenly strengthens into a truly major hurricane – bringing incredibly destructive winds on top of the storm surge.
Listening to the emergency responders in the Houston metro area, I’m struck that they’re largely focused on the potential for the worst-case scenario. That is, they seem to be worried about shifts in the track and the strength of the winds. It’s now virtually certain that Galveston island will be flooded from the bay-side; and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the surge will exceed the height of the floodwall, too. You’d think that, after Katrina, they might have figured out that the intensity at landfall matters a whole heck of a lot less than the width of the field and the resultant surge. Perhaps Ike will make them pay attention to the IKE.
I’m still concerned. There aren’t enough people leaving from Houston. During Rita, which came on the heels of Katrina, people were gone by this time. Now, the roads aren’t even that busy. What the heck? It seems like some were caught unaware, or just don’t care.
