Hurricane Ike Already Overwhelming Galveston Island–UPDATING UNTIL I START LIVE BLOGGING TONIGHT 6 CST
Friday, September 12th, 2008Like I told you peeps before, I’m north of Houston. So far, sunshine and breeziness. Galveston succumbs to the surging gulf as I write this. (Here’s a link for the webcams.) Here is what an Exxon-Mobile insider wrote me (they have their own forecasting methods and they have to be accurate because of their rigs):
Now, the forecasters say to expect 25+ mph sustained winds beginning today @ 1403 CDT, and lasting for 27 hours, 8 minutes.
Of that time, we can expect 39+ mph sustained winds beginning at 1909 CDT, and lasting 17 hours, 32 minutes.
Also, of that time, we can expect 58+ mph sustained winds beginning late tonight @ 2308 CDT, and lasting for 9 hours, 26 minutes
This category is new — 74+ mph sustained winds beginning tomorrow early @ 0127 CDT, and lasting for 2 hours, 43 minutes
The expected highest sustained winds are forecasted to be about 81 mph., with gusts up to 118 mph.
Lastly, the eye of the storm is expected to pass within 20 miles of our zip code tomorrow morning @ 0600 CDT
Please note: This forecast is specifically for the zip code 77381. That is in The Woodlands, Texas. And that is as of an hour ago. So, it is constantly adjusting. As I learn more, I will share it.
The Woodlands and areas north of Houston will have to deal with wind damage and spin-off tornadoes.
Here is my concerns going forward:
1. Too many people. I am alarmed that more of Houston hasn’t evacuated and it’s not because of the storm itself, which will be bad enough. It’s because of the aftermath. Without power, people will be hot. Without power, people can’t cook. Without water, stores can’t be open. People will be stuck in their homes while crews try to clean up the mess.
2. Complacency. I noted this before. People just aren’t taking this storm seriously and I don’t get it. It’s massive. It is directly hitting the fourth largest city in the United States. New Orleans is the fraction of Houston’s size. So, the people left have been kinda lax. I hope they are well-provisioned. I’m not sure they’ve taken enough care.
3. Trauma fatigue. Houston has been in the helping position for a long time. Now, they’re going to need help. People are weary. I’ve said this before. But a lot of energy has been expended here over the past couple of years helping others in their time of need. People are worn out. This is not good. I include myself in this. A person cannot stay hyper alert forever. So, alarmingly, I’m still seeing Galveston residents finally waking up and leaving. Finally.
Far too many people are staying in low lying areas of Houston. What in the hell? People need to get out. They’re not doing it. They don’t want to drive. They don’t want to go anywhere. They’re tired. Well, I fear too many people are going to be dead tired before this is all over.
I don’t know if it’s the newsmedia or the city leadership or what, but there doesn’t seem to be enough urgency about this storm. I don’t get it. The media seems to be smitten with New Orleans and every other American city can just suffer, I guess. What the hell?
New Orleans has the historic French Quarter. That’s all well and good. Houston is full of people. Lots of them; nearly six million of them. In addition, Houston refines America’s oil. You know those distasteful things called refineries that Californians don’t want? Well, they get their gas from Texas. Everyone should be concerned about the safety of oil rigs and refineries. If they haven’t been, they will be soon.
Brendan Loy has a lot more. As the storm comes up, I’ll be live blogging it. Most of the night. Right now, I think I’m going to take nap, so I can stay up late. The wind is starting to blow and the sky is cloudy. Nothing big yet. The dogs are still outside and not freaking out. They usually go crazy when bad weather comes.
You can follow me at Twitter, too. I’ll update there. That’s easier. Short and sweet tweets! As long as I have power…….friends north of here have a generator. We might be visiting them if the power goes out!
UPDATED: My friend John Little is live blogging the hurricane from downtown Houston. You can also follow his tweets on Twitter here. He is about 20 miles closer to the coast than I am here.
More from Houblog who is in Houston and is boarded up:
No traffic out there. Great time to evacuate, people.
As one reporter pointed out last night, the storm surge is going to arrive tonight in the dark, after power has failed. And as I put it, your current opinion of the foolishness of evacuating is going to be pretty damned cold comfort, when you’re standing in chest deep water, trying to shove granny on the roof in 95mph winds (and waves). Hint: it ain’t happening. You’re toast.
Personally, I’d like to urge the folks in Zones Coastal and A who chose to remain behind to follow these instructions:
Instead of relying o n a “Good Samaritan” policy – the fantasy in New Orleans that everyone would take care of the neighbors – the Virginia rescue workers go door to door. If people resist the plea to leave, Mr. Judkins told The Daily Press in Newport News, rescue workers give them Magic Markers and ask them to write their Social Security numbers o n their body parts so they can be identified.
“It’s cold, but it’s effective,” Mr. Judkins explained.
I hear hammers. Someone else is boarding up. Not like I can look out my window to see who…
EVACUATE NOW! If you are in low lying areas of Houston, if you live in rickety homes anywhere, get out, now. The roads are clear sailing to anywhere you want to go and you can still beat the storm. There is no reason to go down with your house.
Ok, enough preaching. Time for sleeping. I’ll be back in a bit to update. Winds have died down again. It comes in gusts.
UPDATE:
Here’s the advisory for The Woodlands, Texas again:
Hurricane Ike Wind Profile for 77382
Issued: 1100 CDT 12 Sep, 2008
Wind profile graph
Expected First Onset and Duration of Sustained Winds
Wind Start Date / Time Duration End Date / Time
25+ mph 12/1126 CDT 30 hours, 15 minutes 13/1741 CDT
39+ mph 12/2029 CDT 17 hours, 32 minutes 13/1401 CDT
58+ mph 13/0058 CDT 8 hours, 36 minutes 13/0935 CDT
74+ mph 13/0401 CDT 0 hours, 54 minutes 13/0456 CDT
Point of Closest Approach of Center:
13/0800 CDT — 4 miles at Azimuth 262.0 degrees (SW)
The eye of the storm will pass 4 MILES from zip code 77382. I’m in zip code 77381 and the eye is predicted to pass directly over here.
There will be sustained winds of 74 mph for an hour tomorrow morning around 5 a.m. At this point, I’m just hoping the kids sleep through it.
My biggest concerns up here are two-fold: flying debris and branches breaking windows due to wind and no power. There’s a good chance we’ll be without power for a couple days. It is 95 degrees here. After the storm and no power, we’ll be in the car and visiting our friends (if they don’t flood) who have a generator. We’re not fair-weather friends. We’re bad weather friends!
Also, for the tools still holding out on Galveston. You do realize that when someone has to rescue your sorry ass you’re putting someone’s son, brother, friend, at risk, right? I just heard on Fox a Galveston commissioner staying on the island with her family. WTH? Downed power, fires, electrocution, there are many ways to die during this thing and drowning is not the least of them.
Ike Cometh–Houston, Texas Beware
Thursday, September 11th, 2008Woodlands, Texas residents are shopping, filling their cars, rumo has it that the schools (CISD Closed 9/12) will be closed [here's the list of closings] tomorrow and traffic is at a stand-still on 242 and I-45. Already. HEB Central Market parked a generator as of 8:30 this morning out back. Lines snake out of every gas station that I passed. People sport the business-like intensity that I’ve come to recognize after a couple storms.
Ike looks like he might be coming “down the pipe”. What that means is that Galveston and then Houston could be in the direct path of a Cat 4 hurricane (if it bumps slightly up).
People are storm weary here and so preparations have been last minute. I think many people, if they were like me, hoped that if they wanted it bad enough, Ike would stay south. Well, that’s not happening. Now the business of putting away stuff that can go airborne, filling propane tanks, making sure there’s enough water, falls to today and everyone is doing the same thing at the same time.
What will happen:
There will be lots of rain. Downtown will flood. Tropical storm Allison came over the area, parked and was exceedingly destructive. Low-lying areas around will flood again.
Trees will go down. You can stay in town, but you might be stuck. This happened to friends. Two huge trees got uprooted during Hurricane Rita and while they had food, gas and provisions, they couldn’t go anywhere because huge trees blocked the streets. Wind will be the major problem where I live That and any tornadoes that spin off. Below is the most concerning graphic for those of us off the coastal areas: wind. We will get over 100 mph winds, if forecasts are right. If you haven’t been in winds that strong, let me assure you, it’s scary shit. Winds at 80 mph are no picnic, either.
Power will go out. Likely, there will be rolling blackouts. The places hardest hit won’t have electricity at all. Some for weeks. I cannot adequately convey how bad that sucks when the temperature is 95 degrees. I just want to note here that people in parts of Baton Rouge STILL do not have electricity after the hurricane a week and a half ago. Misery and stink set in quickly.
People will run out of perishables. I know. You think, I need lots of canned goods and you do. But with rolling blackouts, your fridge’s contents won’t go all bad (have water bottles frozen–you’ll have water and it will keep the fridge cold) and two days into everything, you’re looking at your kids and thinking. Shizen! I want to make them something hot. Like I said, too, don’t assume you won’t have someone who needs your help. You’ll go through food quicker.
After the storm, it will be eerie. No noise. No cars. No people. You’ll be aware, suddenly, of how many people left. Likely, way more people than you thought. So, what occurs to you is, Crap! It’s just me and the criminals. Houston police did a great job during the last storm by all accounts. There was no looting or nefarious behavior. So, that’s good, but Rita was not a direct hit, either. Ike is coming more directly at us and Houston is on the “bad” side of the storm, as of now.
Anyway, it has already begun. I’ll keep you updated. Galveston Island, Brazoria County, and parts of Harris County along the coast are evacuating right now.
Also, Brendan Loy says this:
Regardless of our slight disagreement on that issue, Sullivan makes a couple of other really good points. For one, he writes, “I do think [the double eyewall weirdness] may induce exceptional tornado risk when [Ike] moves inland and begins to disintegrate.” In comments here, he emphasizes this point again: “I think it is time to start talking about tornadoes. That odd core structure could be a killer, at a considerable distance inland.”
Also:
The effects of Ike may not be that concentrated, but they will be very widespread. With the prolonged run of onshore winds on northeast Texas coast, several tidal cycles may back up into the marshlands, just as floodwaters from inland rains try to head seaward. This could result in a prolonged and dramatic immersion of low-lying areas, compounded by wind-driven waves.
Sticking with the storm surge theme, “Ubu Roi” at Houblog makes another good point: “That wide wind field may be keeping the current velocity low, but it also is allowing Ike to build up one hell of a dome of water to ride atop.” Indeed.
In other words, even if Sullivan is right that Ike will never escape its current Category 2 limbo, this hurricane is still going to be a pretty big deal. (And if it does finally “tighten” into a Cat. 3/4, it’ll be an even bigger deal, obviously. In Ubu’s words: “If it tightens up, and the wind speeds up in the next 24-36 hours, it would be even worse than if it were tight now.”)
Here’s what makes me nervous: there has been an odd reticence (myself included) to get hyped up about this storm. There have been so many that have been screeched about in breathless detail that it is easy to get complacent. I think Houstonians may be being complacent about this storm. And there are a lot of Houstonians. Five million people stuck is a hell of a lot of people.
UPDATE:
More from Brendan–
In other words, the best case scenario is that Ike continues to confound expectations, remains a surface-level Category 1 hurricane (which it effectively is right now), and hits Texas with a storm surge of the sort that might ordinarily be generated by a Cat 4-5. Or, to be more precise, without the narrow peak a Cat 4-5 would generate just east of its eye, but with an even broader swath of serious flooding. The worst case scenario is that Ike confounds expectations by tying together its upper and lower circulation, its eyewall gets replaced, and it suddenly strengthens into a truly major hurricane – bringing incredibly destructive winds on top of the storm surge.
Listening to the emergency responders in the Houston metro area, I’m struck that they’re largely focused on the potential for the worst-case scenario. That is, they seem to be worried about shifts in the track and the strength of the winds. It’s now virtually certain that Galveston island will be flooded from the bay-side; and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the surge will exceed the height of the floodwall, too. You’d think that, after Katrina, they might have figured out that the intensity at landfall matters a whole heck of a lot less than the width of the field and the resultant surge. Perhaps Ike will make them pay attention to the IKE.
I’m still concerned. There aren’t enough people leaving from Houston. During Rita, which came on the heels of Katrina, people were gone by this time. Now, the roads aren’t even that busy. What the heck? It seems like some were caught unaware, or just don’t care.
I Do NOT Like Hurricane Ike–UPDATED
Wednesday, September 10th, 2008Here’s the thing: paying attention to the weather is one of my least favorite things to do. So, I don’t do it. Plenty of things to worry about. Rain clouds isn’t one of them. But at the grocery store today, two things got my attention. 1) Almost all the water was sold out. 2) Sarah Palin was on the cover of every tabloid and they all did their damndest to make her look ugly. The water thing got me thinking I should check out the progress of that storm that was supposed to demolish Cuba and fall apart over its mountains. Looks like the hurricane did the former but not the latter.
What’s ugly is the Ike storm track.
As an aside, the picture looks like a human embryo. Look closely. You’ll see. Weird.
Anyway, here’s the track:
Here’s the good news:
Since the last hurricane, Rita, and with the mess that was Katrina, evacuation planning has improved in Houston. So there’s that. We’re far enough inland though, that we probably wouldn’t evacuate. Food, gas, guns. The necessities. I even bought a couple bowie knives, loads of duct tape, a chain saw, water purification tablets, a hand-cranked radio and some other survival stuff last time around. Certain people I won’t mention laughed, but I think it’s just good sense to have those kind of things around just in case.
Even during Rita, which was by no means a terrible storm in this area, electricity was spotty for a week with rolling blackouts here. And we had friends who were without power for nearly a month. In this heat, I can tell you things start to stink pretty damn quickly. And I mean the mold, not the body odor.
Brendan Loy, is not optimistic. I trust Brendan on this. Not only is he a Weather Nerd, he also seems to be rather intuitive about these storms and this is what he’s saying:
This new sense of worry is fueled partly by the track. As I mentioned earlier, the trend toward a landfall in more sparsely populated south Texas or northern Mexico has halted, and now the computer model tracks are inching north — and getting uncomfortably close to the heavily populated, highly vulnerable Houston/Galveston region. In Eric Berger’s words, “if the models were to shift just 50 or so miles up the coast, a landfall at Freeport or just to the northeast would bring the strongest winds to Houston.”
So, back to the store to buy more water. Fuel the vehicles. Blah. Blah. Lots could happen in the next three days, but if I lived on the coast, this wouldn’t be making me happy. It’s not making me happy being inland. And as I recall, Rita seemed to be causing more local consternation but this storm has the potential to be more devastating.
Are Texans dealing with storm fatigue? Maybe.
More at NOAA.
UPDATED:
Beldar, also a Houstonian (who knew?), will be doing this:
I don’t. That doesn’t make me, or those like me, immune from nasty consequences like wind damage, localized flooding, and power outages. But I’m unlikely to be evacuating inland on this one. And as long as I have power and internet access, I’ll probably still be playing whack-a-mole with smears against Sarah Palin.
Me too! What an entertaining way to go through the storm.
A Note On Gustav
Saturday, August 30th, 2008
I live north of Houston, but the pre-hurricane masses were quietly filling up the grocery stores today, as was I. Basically, we’re doing the same thing: filling up the cars, buying extra water. And, one thing I learned from the last two storms: buy more perishables. Yes, you read that right. When the stores were closed for four or five days, I can’t remember now, we were running out of milk and eggs. Partly, it was because we were hosting friends who lived in a mobile home and had to feed them too. It was a surprise, but one we should have planned better for. In any case, it was distressing seeing me go to canned food so quickly. I worried about electricity (and we lost that too). I should have worried about bread and eggs and milk.
Brendan Loy is covering the storm. It will be a doozy. Here’s the latest.
We are in the cone of uncertainty, here. But it is unlikely we’ll get hit. More likely, we’ll have people leaving the New Orleans area looking for some place to stay. Preparations here are already under way, but people are tired–not tired of helping people. Just tired. On the upside, there are a lot of NO transplants now. Hopefully, many people from the area will have someone to go to now and not need the government.
Inevitably, questions will be asked about the folly of living in New Orleans in particular and on the gulf generally. I think living there is fine, but people shouldn’t expect to be insured there–well, or they should expect crazy premiums. And don’t expect the government to bail you out. Ditto, those perched on mountains known for mud slides.
We need to pray for these areas and the people affected. It has been a long hard slog these last three years for those who have endured it. It is absolutely disheartening seeing the storms coming. And another one right behind Gustav too. Here comes Hanna. Ugh.
Democrat Congressman: Yippee! Hurricane Will Hit N.O. Right About The Time of the Convention
Saturday, August 30th, 2008Nope, Democrats don’t use tragedy for their own ends. No sirree:
On a plane from Denver to Charlotte following the Democrats’ convention, I found myself seated behind former National Chairman of the Democratic National Committee Don Fowler and Congressman John Spratt of South Carolina. Their conversation was interesting to say the least.
For example, they made fun of Sarah Palin for several minutes, Fowler calling her “Dan Quayle” on steroids and Spratt creatively describing her as “just terrible.” They both agreed that, “Other than the simple fact that she’s a female,” she has nothing to offer.
Go here to see the video capturing the loving Congressman in action.
Living Hell–How Do You Survive Leaving A Child To Bake In A Car?
Friday, August 15th, 2008Every year in Houston, children die after being left in hot cars. In the last two days here, two children have died. The child who died today, a three year old, tried to save himself:
As the temperatures rose in his mother’s locked truck on Thursday, authorities said the little boy managed to free himself from his car seat and climb to the front of the vehicle, where he put a key in the ignition.
But the 3-year-old died before he could escape the sweltering heat that soon overtook him in the truck’s cabin, the Harris County Sheriff’s Office said.
Cameron Thomas Boone, who celebrated his third birthday last month, was the second child within less than 24 hours to die in the Houston area after a loved one drove to work, locked the vehicle and forgot about them. The boys were the third and fourth children to die in hot vehicles in Harris County this year.
I don’t know how you live after this. It’s so disturbing. How can you charge a parent with a crime? What kind of penalty can be worse than what they live with? Invariably, a family member is on the way to work and forgot the child.
My biggest fear, in Houston, is accidentally leaving my keys in the car, or something like this happening. It is stressful being distracted and having a bunch of kids to herd. Terrifying.
Eduard Weather Drama
Tuesday, August 5th, 2008Maybe I’m writing too soon and too glibly as the real storm should hit my area around 1 p.m., but dang. The drama around a thunderstorm seems excessive. My mom called my yesterday from Michigan and proclaimed that a tropical storm cometh. She’s very concerned about the weather. I pay little attention unless I’m flying on a plane, and even then I don’t pay enough attention as my three-hour, storm-delayed trip to Michigan demonstrated. I would have packed healthy food. Alas.
The technology of advanced warning is fantastic, don’t get me wrong. In 1900, Galveston Island lost most of its inhabitants because a hurricane struck and there was no advanced warning. So warnings are good. Even this tropical storm popped up in the Gulf seemingly out of nowhere, so it’s nice to have the radar and NOAA stuff.
My concern is that there is little perspective. Non-stop crisis mode makes for apathy. The boy who cried wolf and whatnot. I thought of this, too, at the airport, when I heard the Orwellian speaker system drone out the words, “We are at Threat Level Orange (Code Red being nuclear annihilation, I suspect), please watch your belongings…” blah, blah, blah. What good does that do? In the back of everyone’s mind now, after 9/11, people just watch more. Do they need to be reminded by a loudspeaker to pay attention?
And another thing: I want this cleared up. Will listening to my iPod during take-off crash the plane? I can tell you the answer to that: NO it won’t. I know that it won’t because I listened to it three times. The last leg of the journey, an aggressive stewardess who got off on her power just a little too much checked my iPod to make sure it was off–”plane mode isn’t good enough, it has to be off”. Why? Why does it have to be off?
The big winners in all the scare-mongering are the impotent little men and women who suddenly have lots of power over the compliant and brow-beaten masses. Should a terrorist attack happen in the sky again, it won’t likely be Skippy the Stewardess who saves the day. Most likely, it’ll be the average guy wedged into 13D taking the fight to the enemy. And when the hurricane hits, the government won’t save us. Their lack of planning can make saving ourselves a lot more difficult, but we’ll still have to feed, protect, and rebuild ourselves.
I don’t like freedoms taken away by needless scare-mongering. There are enough real dangers out there. We don’t have to manufacture them.
Cross-posted at Right Wing News
